If you've yet to read about the dynamics of the Long Tail, you can read a brief description here. The right side of the graph is the 'hits' of a given business. In the music business, it's Brittney Spears or if you love the 80's, Michael Jackson and Prince. Further down the tail are the niches, which doesn't necessarily imply lower quality, but less demand.
When I think about the long tail of Chico State in light of who we draw to our ministry, at the top or head of the tail are Christians who have grown up in church, next would be Christians who have some church background, and down the tail would be non-Christians of various kinds--seekers, friends of involved Christian students, etc.
The tension point is that our mission is to turn lost students into Christ-centered laborers. The question that periodically swirls in my head is this: 'Why aren't lost students at the head of our tail?'
We've observed a new layer in the last few years--turning students who think they are Christians into Christians. Many of our students are culturally Christian, but do not have a personal relationship with Jesus.
I've noticed that our focus is now divided between mobilizing true Christians to reach out to lost students, and helping cultural Christians establish a personal relationship with Jesus even though they are convinced they already have a relationship with Jesus.
I believe much of the frustration and lack of effectiveness at seeing more students trust Christ, and more evangelism happening in movements around the country is due to this reality. It's not something seen but felt. Because of this, it's hard to measure, evaluate, and take strategic steps to counteract.
My hope would be that we would be learners of the culture, and take small but intentional steps toward applying the things we learn to ministry, and not always 'going with what we know.'